March 2022 Market Update

Dated: March 31 2022

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Mortgage rates are up. Way up. Have home prices started to come down? Let's take a look at up to the minute real estate data.

Mortgage news is big right now. As the Fed fights inflation, they have raised rates pretty dramatically. Mortgage rates have jumped, cutting into the affordability for some buyers, especially first time home buyers who might not have as much cash from selling another home. 

Each month I pick a price point to show you examples of what you can get for your money in Contra Costa, this month, the price is $1,500,000.

Two home examples:

831 Deer Spring Cir, Crystal Ranch neighborhood in Concord, CA

120 Lance Ct, Martinez on the Pleasant Hill border, in Hidden Lakes

Mortgage rates are the highest since 2019 - making the cost of buying go up unless prices go down, BUT having a fixed rate mortgage insulates you from inflation (which might be incentivizing more people to buy).

There still isn’t enough inventory which will likely push prices higher, which means it’s still a good idea to buy a house. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at what’s happening:

 Home Supply (inventory) is at a record low all across the county- when a seller buys a home, there’s no net gain in inventory.

Are homes taking longer to sell: no. We’re at about 8 days- still super fast.

How fast are sellers absorbing new listings: that’s slowing down a bit, but we are still in an extreme sellers market.

For example, look at median and average *Sold* prices in Concord, Pleasant Hill, and Moraga- they all remain up.

Inventory is predicted to increase either next year, 2023… or the year after that, 2024.

What they say is going on:

 Mortgage Bankers Assoc: "First-time homebuyers, who rely on these government programs, are increasingly challenged by both the rapid increase in home prices and higher mortgage rates. Repeat homebuyers, who are more likely to use conventional loans, benefit from the gains in home equity realized on a sale which can be used to fuel their next purchase, even with rates moving higher." 

Chef Economist Core Logic:

"Despite high home prices, the risk of [national] home price decline over the next 12-month period remains low due to the low unemployment rate, in-migration of population with higher incomes, and a low debt service ratio. Mortgage debt service payment as a percent of disposable personal income is at the lowest rate going back to at least 1980," Hepp said.

 Sources:

www.corelogic.com

Mortgage Bankers Association

Paragon MLS

News headlines

I have not and will not verify information provided by third parties. Thanks for watching!

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Jen Cogen

Hi, I'm Jen. Finding the right person to help you navigate buying or selling a home is an important decision. Buying a home is a big deal, especially in the super competitive East Bay. Expect my unwa....

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